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Goldman Sachs predicts that cloud computing penetration will exceed 10% for the first time in 2019, with Alibaba Cloud and others becoming the winners
In 2019, new generation information technologies such as cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence will accelerate their penetration into the economy and social life In various fields, digital transformation has become the consensus of the whole society.
A research report by Goldman Sachs, a well-known Wall Street investment bank, pointed out that with the digital transformation of the whole society, the penetration rate of cloud computing will increase significantly. In 2019, the market penetration rate of cloud computing will exceed 10% for the first time, reaching 11.3%. .
Research shows that once the penetration rate of a technology exceeds 10%, it will enter a stage of accelerated growth. Goldman Sachs predicts that the cloud services market will continue to grow at a rate of at least 20% annually until 2021.
In 2017, cloud service spending accounted for approximately 8% of the total potential IT spending market. Goldman Sachs predicts that number will jump to 15% by 2021. This means that cloud computing will further erode corporate IT spending and gradually expand its influence in the IT market.
Last year, giant manufacturers such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alibaba accounted for approximately 56% of the core cloud computing market. Goldman Sachs expects their combined share to reach 84% by next year. This means that the cloud market has begun to consolidate, a trend that will only become more significant in the coming years.
Goldman Sachs predicts that although companies other than giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Alibaba earned about $21 billion in revenue last year by providing cloud services, that number will drop to $20 billion this year. Next year, it will only be 12 billion US dollars, which is indeed a very obvious decline.
This is not good news for IBM, Oracle and other companies trying to enter the cloud computing market. If Goldman's predictions are accurate, these companies will be left fighting for the scraps left by the cloud giants.
Data from Goldman Sachs shows that in terms of market share, Amazon AWS currently ranks first in the world, Microsoft Azure ranks second in the world, and Alibaba Cloud ranks third in the world, and these cloud vendors are all maintaining rapid growth.
Goldman Sachs said that in the future, only these largest players—basically Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, Chinese giants Alibaba Cloud, and Google Cloud—will have the resources to provide differentiated services and continue to create competition. Required data server infrastructure.

How will cloud computing develop in the next few years?

The scale of my country’s cloud computing market will exceed 310 billion yuan in 2021

In my country, the cloud computing market has grown from the initial billions to the current scale of 100 billions. Industry development fast. According to data disclosed by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, from 2017 to 2019, the market size of my country's cloud computing industry grew at a rate of more than 30%, showing a rapid growth trend. In 2020, my country's economy has steadily rebounded, and the cloud computing market has experienced explosive growth. The overall cloud computing market size has reached 209.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 56.7%. In 2021, China's cloud computing market size will reach 310.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 48.4%.





Public cloud accounts for nearly 60%

From the perspective of market segments, the public cloud market share is increasing year by year. In 2021 my country's public cloud market accounts for the highest share, reaching 59.7%.

my country's IaaS market is the most mature

From the perspective of public cloud market segments, what is different from the global development status is that currently, my country's cloud computing is dominated by IaaS The (infrastructure as a service) market is the most mature. In 2020, my country's public cloud IaaS market reached 89.5 billion yuan, accounting for 70.09% of the public cloud market. Affected by new infrastructure and other policies, the IaaS market continues to rise. At the same time, referring to the current development status of the global cloud computing market, my country's SaaS (software as a service) market will have great development potential. In 2020, the public cloud SaaS market size will reach 27.9 billion yuan, accounting for 21.85%. In 2021, my country's public cloud SaaS market will account for 22.82%, and IaaS will account for 62.14%.

Alibaba Cloud has the highest market share

The main leading manufacturers in various fields of China's cloud computing industry are as follows:

< p> From the perspective of manufacturer market share, according to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology survey statistics, Alibaba Cloud, Tianyi Cloud, and Tencent Cloud occupy the top three public cloud IaaS market shares, while Huawei Cloud and Sinnet (ranked in no particular order) are in second place. Group; Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, Baidu Cloud, and Huawei Cloud are at the forefront of the public cloud PaaS market.

Note: As of June 2022, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology has not released 2021 data.

——For more detailed research and analysis of this industry, please see the "China Cloud Computing Industry Development Prospects Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report" by the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute

Cloud computing will increase to US$116 billion in 2021, winner: AWS/Microsoft/Alibaba Cloud, chasers end

Where will the cloud computing industry go in 2019? ? Some say that cloud computing is still in its infancy, and new competitors can quickly catch up. Others say that the cloud computing industry has entered an era of oligopoly competition. The Matthew Effect is beginning to exert its power, and the followers behind it will gradually be shuffled.

Correspondingly, in 2018, the cloud computing market can be said to be turbulent. China's Alibaba Cloud's revenue exceeded 20 billion in 2018 and became the largest cloud computing manufacturer in Asia. The traditional old IBM fell off the altar, and Google Cloud Quickly catching up to become the top five in the world.

Core cloud services include infrastructure as a service (IaaS), in which companies such as Amazon and Alibaba provide computing processing capabilities; and platform as a service (PaaS), in which companies such as Microsoft provide some kind of A cloud-based operating system that allows people to build and operate applications on top of it.

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that cloud spending is currently expanding, in part because it cannibalizes enterprises' non-cloud spending. For example, in the past, enterprises maintained and operated applications on their own servers, but now they operate applications on cloud services.

Last year, cloud service spending accounted for about 8% of the total addressable market. Goldman Sachs expects that number to jump to 15% by 2021. In other words, more and more enterprise IT spending will shift to the cloud.

Goldman Sachs data predicts that enterprises spent about $47 billion on core cloud services last year, and it expects that number to grow to $62 billion this year and $116 billion by 2021.

"As the hottest segment of the enterprise technology market, cloud computing is still in its early stages. But for many companies, its window of opportunity is closing quickly."

Goldman Sachs thinks so in its latest quarterly report on the cloud computing market. According to analysts, the good news is that the cloud services market will continue to grow at a rate of at least 20% annually until 2021. The bad news is that more and more cloud spending will go to four companies, namely Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Alibaba Baba.

“We still expect the public cloud market to consolidate into an oligopoly, with the top four players taking the lion’s share,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report.

Typically, as a market expands rapidly, there will be plenty of room for competitors to thrive. But Goldman Sachs doesn't think so. Its analysts predict that the cloud market has already begun to consolidate, a trend that will only become more significant in the coming years. They say only the biggest players - essentially Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and Chinese giant Alibaba Cloud - have the resources to offer differentiated services and continue to build the data server infrastructure needed to compete.

Last year, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Alibaba accounted for about 56% of the core cloud computing market. Goldman Sachs expects their combined share to reach 84% by next year.

This trend also appears in China. The 2018 IDC data report supports that Alibaba Cloud currently occupies nearly 50% of the market share in China, which is more than the second to ninth places combined.

"The four largest players (AWS, Azure, Alibaba Cloud, Google) will continue to dominate market share," analysts said.

Furthermore, while the revenues of the big players grow, the revenues of other players entering the cloud market will actually decrease.

Goldman Sachs predicts that while companies outside the Big Four generated about $21 billion in revenue last year from providing cloud services, that number will fall to $20 billion this year and only $12 billion next year.

This is not good news for IBM, Oracle and other companies trying to enter the cloud computing market. If Goldman's predictions are accurate, these companies will be left fighting for the scraps left by the cloud giants.